Airline body, International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced international scheduled traffic results for January showing a deepening year-on-year demand slump.

International passenger demand fell by 5.6% in January 2009 compared to the same month in 2008, a full percentage point worse than the 4.6% year-on-year drop recorded in December, and the fifth consecutive month of contraction.

Air cargo is a key indicator of economic and manufacturing activity. It had collapsed 22.6% in December 2008, and this has only worsened in January 2009 with a 23.2% drop. Simple translation, manufacturers are still shedding inventory and cutting production.

Clearly alarm bells are ringing, but it does not appear that governments are hearing them.

Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO statement says it best

The drop in demand is much more harmful. The industry is shrinking with revenues expected to fall by US$35 billion to US$500 billion, delivering a loss of US$2.5 billion this year.

Airlines remain in intensive care, but while others ask for government bailouts, our demands on Governments are much more modest. First, don’t tax us to death in order to pay for investments in the banking industry. This includes the UK government’s plans to increase its multi-billion pound Air Passenger Duty and the Dutch Government’s misguided departure tax.

In 2008, even as governments delivered tax breaks to stimulate economic growth, the airline industry took on an additional tax burden of US$6.9 billion.

Second, give airlines the commercial freedoms that every other business takes for granted. With the world’s capital markets in disarray, archaic ownership restrictions are an unnecessary burden that must be lifted. Today’s crisis highlights the need to change the structure of this hyper-fragmented and fragile industry

See the detailed results here.

Do you agree with Giovanni Bisignani's view ? Post your opinions via a comment.

SCARY!!!!, there is no other word to describe the performance numbers and the forecast from IATA, the association representing 93% of the global commercial air transport industry.

For the month of December, it is now official -- ALL regions of the world, have reported major declines in cargo performance in December 2008 when compared to December 2007. Across the globe, air cargo, a vital barometer of world trade, is down 22.6%.

In November, Africa was the sole region showing positive compared to a year ago. Again, the Asia Pacific region, which represents 45% of global air cargo, led the world with a whopping 26% fall, when compared to December a year ago, this on top of 16.9% decline in November.

As per Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO

“The 22.6% free fall in global cargo is unprecedented and shocking. There is no clearer description of the slowdown in world trade. Even in September 2001, when much of the global fleet was grounded [post the 9/11 terror attacks on New York city], the decline was only 13.9%,”

The year on year performance does not reflect the oncoming tsunami of collapsing world commerce and trade. On an annual basis air cargo is down 4% with Latin America leading the world down 13.5%. Asia Pacific is down 6.6%.


Those of us, hoping for a global recovery in 2009, data from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and IATA, shatter those hopes. Business and consumer confidence are at historic lows. Leaders at the World Economic Forum meeting at Davos are talking about a mind numbing 0.5% growth for 2009. While India and China will experience moderate growth of around 6%, the recession in the developed economies will ensure the global recovery will commence only in 2010.



Semiconductors shipments are one the highest users of air cargo and a key barometer in global electronics production. The shipment performance of the global semiconductor industry reflects the deepening impact of the global recession.


Across the globe, the aviation market have been hit, and hit hard. Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPKs) are down, and Freight Tonne Kilometers (FTKs) are way down.


Airlines have been retiring or parking their aircraft in record numbers. The silver lining in this saga, is that airlines, mostly in the middle east, have been taking deliveries of new more fuel-efficient aircraft, and refreshing their fleet to cut down operating costs.


Airlines across the world are facing deepening losses, and I am sure we are going to see the many airlines and brands simply disappear during 2009. US airlines were smart and cut their capacity ahead of the drop in demand, unlike airlines in other regions. This will aid them in returning to profitability sooner.


The bad news is going to continue in 2009. Passenger markets are expect to decline another 3%, which freight will decline another 5%.


Part of this precipitous drop in global trade is due to the "FUD Factor". Fear Uncertainty and Doubt. Every procurement manager, and individual consumer has retreated in to a shell. Stop all purchases. Buy only the bare minimum. This has slammed the brakes on the global economy so hard, that there is hurt everywhere.

Life is going to be difficult, but the world is still here. Caution is needed, but so is pragmatism. Surely there is no need to retreat so hard, and withdraw so deep.

As the world emerges from this shell, and consumption re-starts, the shelves are going to be bare, as existing inventories would have been fully consumed, and capacity cuts in manufacturing will be take supply well below demand. At that point air cargo will increase with a vengeance.

The recently announced results by The International Air Transport Association (IATA), is nothing short of shocking.

International air cargo is down by a whopping 13.5 per cent in November when compared to November 2007, and passenger growth is down by 4.6 per cent.

Graph legend
RPK - Revenue Passenger Kilometres (sales)
ASK - Available Seat Kilometres (capacity)
FTK - Freight Ton Kilometres (sales)
ATK - Available Ton Kilometres (capacity)


Even for year to date comparisons January to November between 2008 and 2007, global air cargo is down 2.2 per cent


Globally air cargo transports about 35 per cent to 40 per cent of global trade, by value. The negative growth in air cargo clearly shows the rapid fall in global trade, and the broadening impact of the deepening economic slowdown.

Even the middle east, the region showing consistent growth, slipped in to negative territory at -1.6 per cent. The largest air freight zone, Asia Pacific, which contributes 44.6 per cent to global air freight, contracted by the largest -16.90 per cent. Capacity cuts of 1 per cent in passenger and 3.7 per cent in cargo, could not keep up with the rapid declines.

India
As per data from the Airports Authority of India, available till October 2008; India year-to-date passenger performance is significantly worse than the rest of Asia Pacific and global performance. Passenger growth is down to -3.4 per cent vs. -0.8 per cent (Asia Pacific) and +2.2 per cent global.

However on the freight front, India has a Y-T-D growth of 4.2 per cent based on actual tonnage, compared to -4.7 per cent in Asia Pacific and -2.2 per cent globally.


Bangalore
For some unexplainable reason, Bangalore's performance is way below the national standard, at -14.8 per cent and -5.3 per cent for monthly passenger and freight performance, and -8 per cent and -7 per cent for year to date passenger and freight performance.

Highlights of the IATA report :

International Passenger Traffic

• The November passenger decline of 4.6% is a considerable worsening from both the 1.3% demand contraction in October and the 2.9% fall in September.
• Asia-Pacific carriers face the most difficult operating environment with a 9.7% decline in November, following a 6.1% contraction in October. The region also had the most aggressive capacity cuts at -5.1%. While Chinese domestic traffic rebounded after the Olympics, travel to and from international markets continues to decline, reflecting the weakness in both global trade and consumer confidence.
• North American carriers saw international traffic decline by 4.8% - the second largest drop among the regions. Until August, the region’s carriers had been shifting capacity to international markets. With the near collapse of the investment banking sector and consequent reductions in business travel, North Atlantic travel slumped. Carriers have started to cut international capacity with a 0.8% drop in November (following 0.4% growth in October)
• European carriers saw international traffic drop by 3.4% as all the region’s major markets (intra-Europe, North Atlantic, and Asia) slumped.
• Smaller emerging markets fared better. African carriers saw traffic decline by 1.6%. This is a considerable improvement from the 12.9% drop in October, resulting from stronger intra-African traffic. Middle Eastern carriers saw traffic increase by 5.6%. This is up from 3.5% growth in October, but represents a step-change from the double-digit expansion that characterized growth prior to the current financial crisis. Latin American carriers saw a slight decline in growth to 3.3% (compared to 4.5% growth in October), buoyed by the region’s positive, albeit slower, economic growth.

International Freight Traffic

• Asia-Pacific carriers (representing 44.6% of global freight) saw freight traffic fall by 16.9% in November - the largest decline of any region. As freight accounts for a larger percentage of revenues for the Asia-Pacific carriers, fourth quarter profits for the region’s carriers will be disproportionately (and negatively) impacted by the downturn in the global air freight market.
• Double-digit freight declines were also experienced by Latin American carriers (-15.7%), North American carriers (-14.4%) and European carriers (-11.0%). Freight traffic for Middle Eastern carriers turned negative (-1.6%), following 1.0% growth in October. African carriers, while being the only region posting freight growth (2.2%), saw a decline from the 3.0% growth posted in October. Plummeting business confidence and the continuing turmoil in financial markets indicates that the worsening trend will be continued in December.

Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO said

“The industry is now shrinking by all measures. The 1.0% capacity cut in international passenger markets in November could not keep pace with the 4.6% fall in passenger demand. We can expect deep losses in the fourth quarter,”

“With no end in sight for the worsening global economy, the 2008 gloom will carry over into the new year. Relief in the oil price has been outstripped by the falls in demand and capacity cuts are not keeping pace. The industry is back in intensive care. Improving efficiency everywhere will be theme for 2009,”

While the end to the global economic slowdown is still much further away than expected, the freight performance in India, shows us, the Indian economy is still performing well. We have to defeat the FUD Factor (Fear Uncertainty Doubt) that is in our minds.

Happy 2009.

As we wake up to a new year, I bring you an interesting video I came across on YouTube, which shows the global air traffic over 24 hours. But speeded up to complete in one minute.

Air traffic follows the sun, at its peak during daylight, just like most human activity does.

In the initial stages of the video as it is day time in Asia and evening approaches in the Americas, there is massive activity in the USA, and hordes of flights being launched towards Europe over the Atlantic.

At the same time as morning approaches Europe, the flights start descending on to Europe from both east and west, which then return back mid-day in Europe.

There are interesting patterns along the South East Asia to North East Asia routes, and also South America to the Iberian peninsula.

But the flights to, from, and within the United States, whether trans-Atlantic or trans-Pacific is simply staggering.

I also invite your attention to the number of flights over India at night.

The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation reports that the International Air Transport Association (IATA) released international traffic data for Aug-08 that confirmed a continuing downturn.

International passenger demand growth slowed to 1.3%, following disappointing growth of 1.9% in July. Passenger load factors fell to 79.2% a sharp drop-off from the 81% recorded during the same period last year as capacity growth outpaced demand.

International freight traffic saw its third consecutive month of contraction with a 2.7% decline following drops of 1.9% in July and 0.8% in June.

Giovanni Bisignani, IATA’s Director General and CEO said, “Passenger traffic grew by 5.4% in the first half of the year. That slowed to 1.9% in July and 1.3% in August. The contrast between the first half of the year and the last two months is stark.” “The slowdown has been so sudden that airlines can’t adjust capacity quickly enough. While the drop in the oil price is welcome relief on the cost side, fuel remains 30% higher than a year ago. And with traffic growth continuing to decline, the industry is still heading for a US$5.2 billion loss this year.”

Bisignani said, Air freight has declined for the past three months, led by Asia Pacific carriers that posted a 6.5% decline in July and a 6.8% decline in August. “Airlines carry 35% by value of the goods traded internationally. The three-month decline - led by weakness in Asia-Pacific markets - is a clear indication that global trade is slowing down. This shows that the impact of the financial crisis is broad geographically and will worsen before it gets better.”

Passenger

• Asia Pacific carriers reported a 3.1% contraction, following a 0.5% decline in July. Economic distortions surrounding the Olympics in China and a weakening Japanese economic outlook contributed to the decline. While some recovery in this weak performance is expected in coming months, clearly the region’s economies are feeling the impact of the turmoil in the financial markets.
• Middle Eastern carriers saw traffic growth drop to 4.3% following 5.3% in July and well below the 10.6% growth recorded during the first 6 months of the year.
• In contrast, international passenger traffic carried by North American airlines accelerated from 4.2% growth in July to 5.2% in August, in Latin America from 8.1% to 11.9% and in Europe from 1.3% to 1.6%.
• August is usually the second strongest month of the year, but the 79.2% load factor achieved was 1.8% points lower than last year although scheduled capacity is planned to slow very sharply to the point where it barely grows by the end of the year.

Cargo

• The 6.8% decline in international freight shipped by carriers in the Asia Pacific region had the greatest impact as they comprise 45% of the global air cargo markets.
• The other big market players also showed weakness. European carriers experienced a 0.9% decline, while US carriers reported weak growth of 0.8%.
• Sharp declines in freight traffic in Latin America (-13.2%) reflect restructuring in Brazil with cuts in capacity.

Bisignani added,“The industry crisis is deepening and no region is immune. Urgent measures are needed. From taxation to charges and operational efficiencies, all areas impacting the business must be examined for ways to reduce costs and drive efficiencies. It’s a matter of survival.”

Despite this slowdown, foreign carriers are still bullish on India, and Bangalore in particular. Emirates in is the process of adding its 3rd daily flight, and is today the dominant foreign airline in Bangalore.